There has been quite a lot of emphasis on polling in this election season. And many people, including myself, have pointed out that the polls are both over sampling Democrats and under sampling Republicans based on the results of the last election. Thus there is considerable skepticism about these polls and what they are telling us. Two college professors from Colorado, on the other hand, have an economically based model that breaks down the numbers on a state by state basis. This model looks at economic and jobs data, as well as other factors, and has correctly predicted the winner of every election going back to 1980. Their current prediction, based on this system, is that Romney will win with 320 electoral votes to Obama’s 218. The popular vote will split 53% Romney to 47% Obama. The Daily Caller reports the story here, and you can read about the report from The University of Colorado at Boulder here.
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
